Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 3.814473 4.190930 4.634957 5.212130 5.968024 6.968535 8.489471
2024-12-29 3.399186 3.876307 4.491755 5.393482 6.796053 9.203903 15.075923
2025-01-05 3.029237 3.509391 4.153662 5.153462 6.860975 10.345212 24.246718
2025-01-12 2.763110 3.230530 3.872514 4.904793 6.780695 11.148392 44.335661
2025-01-19 2.591665 3.055882 3.707579 4.792236 6.893205 12.602813 NaN
2025-01-26 2.522023 3.011221 3.720939 4.967661 7.658009 17.786848 NaN
2025-02-02 2.488163 3.011201 3.798040 5.269940 8.927143 36.046194 NaN
2025-02-09 2.406666 2.933016 3.740118 5.303207 9.537259 87.175094 NaN
2025-02-16 2.340941 2.872290 3.702454 5.367624 10.327619 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.234555 2.742945 3.538196 5.137008 9.930529 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.179543 2.688576 3.495839 5.162442 10.566293 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.123626 2.629239 3.439426 5.146649 11.051426 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.046745 2.536339 3.322863 4.988702 10.847566 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.021072 2.521872 3.342395 5.151531 12.484725 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.946746 2.426988 3.211838 4.933258 11.775060 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.875612 2.334775 3.081938 4.706150 10.954751 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.825507 2.274112 3.005664 4.602984 10.847349 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.813530 2.273055 3.035731 4.763671 12.567700 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.814450 2.292375 3.104218 5.039235 16.126170 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.787067 2.264365 3.082141 5.069460 17.753769 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.764207 2.242728 3.070602 5.127929 20.242526 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.715336 2.176622 2.970358 4.918256 18.110360 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.692476 2.152814 2.950634 4.941429 19.984480 NaN NaN